Web Archeology & Forensic Model

Web AI Corpus Saturation & Cohort Decay Workbench

Benchmark: 35.0% AI (Post-ChatGPT) vs 9.6% Total Web (July 2026)
Modeled Overall AI Share
9.60%
July 2026 Web Baseline
Post-ChatGPT Cohort Share
27.4%
3.8y Half-Life Replacement
Projected Majority-AI Web
2029.4
>50% Synthetic Threshold
Implied Pre-ChatGPT AI Rate
0.00%
Archived Cumulative Heritage
Corpus Dynamics Config
Simulation Presets
Domain AI Strata (Post-2022)
Web Replacement & AI Saturation Trajectory (2022–2032) Cohort Decay Model
Cumulative Web AI Share Post-ChatGPT Cohort Vol Pre-ChatGPT Archived Vol --- 50% Crossing Horizon
Monte Carlo Web Crawler Probe Ready
Observed AI Rate: 9.62%
95% Wilson CI: [7.9%, 11.6%]
Forensic Decomposition & Export
Volume Balance Equation:
$R_{total} = (w_{post} \times R_{post}) + (w_{pre} \times R_{pre})$
At Reference Date (2026.54, Δt = 3.67y):
• $w_{post} = 1 - e^{-\ln(2) \cdot 3.67 / T_{1/2}} = 1 - e^{-0.693 \cdot 3.67 / 3.80} = 27.4\%$
• $R_{total} = (0.274 \times 35.0\%) + (0.726 \times 0.0\%) = 9.59\%$
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