Reported Net Profit / Loss
-$42.8M
Statutory Impact
(-124%)
EBITS Operating Margin
14.2%
Target: 21.0%
(-6.8% gap)
Inventory Carrying Asset
$1,185M
Valuation Reset
$115M write-off
Est. Share Price Whipsaw
±18.5%
Vol Range:
Earnings Bridge Waterfall (AUD Millions)
Baseline / Final
FX Gain
Shock Drop
Market Whipsaw & Volatility Band Simulation (12-Month Horizon)
Implied Volatility Band
Projected Stock Price (AUD)
Portfolio Brand Tier Margin Vulnerability
Luxury Tier (Penfolds/DAOU)
High Margin
Effective Margin:
31.4%
US Volume Impact:
-28.0%
Premium Tier (19 Crimes)
Mid Tier
Effective Margin:
15.2%
De-stocking Absorption:
-24.0%
Commercial / Mass Tier
Low Margin
Effective Margin:
4.8%
Write-down Proportion:
$74.8M
Simulating baseline: Write-down $115M | Net Loss -$42.8M | Whipsaw ±18.5%