WNBA Postseason Win Probability Live Estimator

Possession & Win Probability Timeline 4Q Endgame Trajectory (Last 4 Min)

Endgame Leverage Insight: With Minnesota trailing by 3 and holding the ball at 3:13 remaining, a score on this possession swings MIN win probability up by approximately +14.2%. Failure to score gives NYL a 75.8% hold rate.

Metric	NYL (Away)	MIN (Home)	Differential
Current Score	80	77	+3 (NYL)
3-Point Efficiency	38.0%	36.0%	+2.0%
Projected Possessions Left	4.0	4.0	0.0
Expected Points per Poss	1.37	1.55	-0.18

Clutch Scenario Sandbox Tweak pace, shooting & possession

Time Remaining in 4Q 3:13 (193s)

Current Possession with Ball MIN (Home)

NYL 3-Point Shooting % 38%

MIN 3-Point Shooting % 36%

Endgame Pace (Possessions / Min) 4.0 poss

Quick Counterfactual Scenarios

Methodology: Real-time estimation uses collegiate & WNBA endgame empirical decay curves combined with Bill James' Pythagorean expectation adjusted for possession value, remaining clock, and shooting efficiency.