Complacency Gap & Breakpoint Model
CUSHION BUFFERED
Threat Severity
58
Weighted Index
Market Cushion
72
Absorption Power
Complacency Gap
+14 pts
Buffer Surplus
Vol Spike Prob
18%
Tail Event 60-day
Threat Shockwave
Absorber Threshold
Net Drawdown Trajectory
Mechanistic Explanation
Why Stocks Are Staying Calm
Robust corporate balance sheets, relentless stock buybacks, and persistent liquidity buffers are currently absorbing interest rate and geopolitical volatility. Investors remain calm because earnings yields still outpace immediate distress trigger thresholds.
Projected Stress Drawdown by Asset Class
| Asset Category | Beta | Absorption | Estimated Drawdown |
|---|