Macro Scenario Presets
Intervention & Position Dials
$35B
¥160.50
¥1500B
5x
20%
0.08
POST-INTERVENTION SPOT
154.20
-3.93% JPY Surge
CARRY EQUITY DRAWDOWN
-19.65%
5x Leveraged Impact
REMAINING MARGIN BUFFER
0.35%
Maintenance: 20.00%
FORCED LIQUIDATION
¥420B
-2.85% Global Asset Spill
FX Spot Shock & Collateral Margin Decay Curve
Interactive D3 Engine
Stage 1: MoF Reserve Shock
BoJ sells $35B reserves, driving USD/JPY down from 160.50 to 154.20.
Stage 2: Collateral Impairment
5x leverage amplifies the 3.93% spot move into a -19.65% equity loss.
Stage 3: Margin Call Breach
Buffer drops to 0.35%, breaching 20% maintenance. Brokers force fire-sales.
Stage 4: Systemic Contagion
¥420B forced unwind sparks a -2.85% systemic cross-asset drawdown.
Unwind Tranche Ledger & Feedback Iterations
| Phase / Iteration | USD/JPY Spot | Spot Move % | Equity Loss % | Margin Buffer % | Forced Sales (JPY Bn) | Spillover Drawdown |
|---|