Yuan Valuation & Global Imbalance Simulator

Intervention Parameters

Analytical Paradigm:

Annual Reserve Purchases ($B) $120B

Central Bank official foreign exchange purchases per annum.

Capital Controls Index (0-1) 0.75

Friction on private capital outflows (1.0 = total restriction).

Domestic Savings Rate (% GDP) 44.0%

Structural domestic gross national savings rate.

Domestic Investment Rate (% GDP) 38.0%

Gross domestic capital formation rate.

Nominal FX Target (USD/CNY) 7.15

Official policy target benchmark exchange rate.

Balance of Payments (BoP) Dynamic Capital & Trade Flows Active Instrument Model

Simulated Trade Balance Trajectory (3-Year Forecast) Math.js Differential Trajectory

Macroeconomic Identity Decomposition

S - I = $600.0B - $520.0B = $80.0B (Structural Gap)
Active Intervention Offset: FX_Accum ($120B) + Outflow_Friction ($110B) = $230.0B
Net Balance of Payments Surplus (NX) = $310.0B

The Yuan is currently modeled as an active instrument: policy interventions generate an artificial trade surplus beyond structural domestic savings gaps.