Academic Scandal Market Resolution Simulator

Polymarket Wire MARKET: JASON ARDAY RESIGNATION

"JUST IN: Cambridge professor Jason Arday resigns 'with immediate effect' amid plagiarism allegations & questions over his academic credentials."

Baseline Odds

22.0%

Updated Implied Prob

98.5%

Implied Probability Curve P(YES)

Log-odds Bayesian updates plotted over cumulative time offsets

Trajectory Threshold (50%)

Bayesian Evidence Stack

Trader Position & Payoff Simulator

Resolved YES

Shares Bought

Avg Entry Price ($)

Net Unrealized PnL $952.50

Return on Investment +181.43%

Total Capital Outlay: $525.00

Current Position Value: $1,477.50

Implied Probability Target: 0.9850

Orderbook Depth & Spread

Spread: $0.02

Audit Summary: Immediate resignation event pushed Bayesian log-odds to terminal resolution threshold. Position unrealized gain validated.

Status: MATCHED REASONING

Authored log-odds and hypothetical position arithmetic

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This saved interface adds authored weights to log odds. Start with the stored prior point two two. Convert it to the logarithm of point two two divided by point seven eight. Then add weights one point eight, one point two and three point five in sequence. The inverse logistic map turns the result back into a number between zero and one, with the code clamping intermediate outputs between point zero zero five and point nine nine five. The four bars share five pixels per percentage point. Their values follow the formula only. These weights are not independently measured likelihood ratios, and the result is not a verified probability of a real event. This explanation does not endorse or repeat the allegations or named-person claims stored in the source. The position calculation is bookkeeping under another assumption: a yes share is valued at the model number, while a no share is valued at one minus that number. Consider an illustrative model value of point seven five, fifteen hundred yes shares and entry price point three five. The outlay is five hundred twenty five. The model position value is eleven hundred twenty five, so the difference is six hundred. The bars use half a pixel per dollar, yielding lengths two hundred sixty two point five and five hundred sixty two point five. The return ratio is six hundred divided by five hundred twenty five, about one hundred fourteen point two nine percent. This hypothetical arithmetic assumes a price mapping. It is not actual trading execution, a real quote, a guaranteed payout or financial advice. The source assigns its resolved yes label whenever the model output reaches point nine five, and resolved no when it falls to point zero five. Those branches are labels, not independent resolution evidence. Our number line places the two thresholds at their correct positions on a four hundred pixel zero to one scale. Offline initialization also calls an external icon library before it calls the update function, and the formulas depend on an external math library. Actual browser behavior must therefore be checked rather than assumed. No source allegations, credentials, institutional decisions or live market state are validated by this local video.