Polymarket Wire
MARKET: JASON ARDAY RESIGNATION
"JUST IN: Cambridge professor Jason Arday resigns 'with immediate effect' amid plagiarism allegations & questions over his academic credentials."
Baseline Odds
22.0%
Updated Implied Prob
98.5%
Implied Probability Curve P(YES)
Log-odds Bayesian updates plotted over cumulative time offsets
Trajectory
Threshold (50%)
Bayesian Evidence Stack
Trader Position & Payoff Simulator
Resolved YES
Net Unrealized PnL
$952.50
Return on Investment
+181.43%
Total Capital Outlay:
$525.00
Current Position Value:
$1,477.50
Implied Probability Target:
0.9850
Orderbook Depth & Spread
Spread: $0.02
Audit Summary: Immediate resignation event pushed Bayesian log-odds to terminal resolution threshold. Position unrealized gain validated.
Status: MATCHED REASONING