Econometric Parameters
Exclusion Violation (γ Direct Disease Effect):
0.12
γ = 0 assumes strict exogeneity (pure AJR); γ > 0 captures Sachs/Albouy malaria confounders.
Settler Mortality Measurement Noise (σ_e):
0.15
Baseline Sample Constraint:
All Former Colonies
Task Automation Displacement Rate (θ_A):
0.045
Rate at which capital displaces labor in existing tasks
New Task Reinstatement Rate (θ_N):
0.018
Creation of novel labor-intensive tasks (Acemoglu & Restrepo)
Capital Elasticity (α):
0.35
AI Task Substitutability Ceiling:
0.22
Acemoglu (2024) estimates ~4.6% of tasks easily automated, ~20-25% extended.
Hard-to-Learn Task Complexity Penalty:
0.40
Cost Savings per Automated Task (π):
0.27
Econometric Simulation & Peer Critique Evaluation
2SLS Inst. Coeff (β̂)
0.68
IV vs OLS Gap (Δ)
0.24
Task Displacement Index
1.65
10-Yr AI GDP Boost (%)
0.88%
Wage Inequality Δ
+8.4%
Structural Regression & Sensitivity Spectrum
2SLS Instrumental Variable Shift
Empirical Resilience Assessment: Albouy & Sachs Sensitivity
Under mild exclusion restriction violations (γ=0.12), the estimated institutional coefficient remains positive but drops from 0.92 to 0.68. The causal premium over OLS contracts by 35%, confirming Albouy's warning regarding campaign mortality measurement noise.
| Model Vector | Estimated Parameter | 95% Confidence Interval | Critique Resilience Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| AJR 2SLS Institutions (β̂) | 0.680 | [0.42, 0.94] | Moderate Sensitivity |
| Labor Share Delta | -1.85% | -- | Capital Deepening Bias |
| AI TFP Macro Growth Ceiling | 0.088% / yr | [0.05%, 0.12%] | Acemoglu Bound Validated |