AfD Voter Demographic Explorer & Geographic Map Workbench

Voter Demographics

Electorate Slicing

Region Selection

Age Cohort

Education Level

Urbanicity Settlement

Primary Grievance

Economic Insecurity Index 78

Cultural & Identity Grievance 85

Voter Origin Archetype

Projected AfD Share

In targeted cohort slice

Demographic Shift

+4.2% among unionized blue-collar workers

Trend vs 2021 federal baseline

East-West Gap

+14.1%

East premium in rural brackets

Protest Volatility

High

Mobilization sensitivity

Cohort Voting Propensity by Education & Age Group

Simulated vote share distribution comparing AfD against CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens in selected demographic bracket.

Geographic Constituency Matrix (East vs West Strongholds)

Interactive state mapping highlighting electoral divergence between Eastern federal states and Western industrial belts.

State	Cluster	Sim. Share

Analytical Synthesis

FT Investigative Brief

Support Share Estimate

Key Demographic Shift

+4.2% among unionized blue-collar workers

Primary Motivator

Anti-establishment sentiment & economic insecurity

Coalition Vulnerability

High volatility among protest voters vs ideological base

Electoral Dynamic Notes

Core Voter Profile: Male 35–54 with vocational training in non-metropolitan municipalities.

East-West Cleavage: Eastern states (Saxony, Thuringia, Saxony-Anhalt) show double-digit structural baselines exceeding western peers.

Economic Linkage: Heightened anxiety over manufacturing energy costs and inflation amplifies defection from traditional working-class centers.

Demographic Briefing Export

Export the active simulated parameter space and demographic matrix directly to structured researcher files.

AfD Voter Demographic & Geographic Model

Your browser does not support video.

Read the explanation

This workbench models simulated party vote shares by layering demographic factors, regional baselines, and sentiment indexes onto an eighteen percent federal baseline. Selecting Eastern Germany, vocational education, and rural settlements adds categorical points, while economic and cultural slider deltas above fifty add further percentage points. In the cartogram, individual state shares dynamically scale based on simulated AfD support, expanding bubble radius and intensifying opacity with higher Eastern state concentration.

AfD Voter Demographic Explorer & Geographic Map Model

How does this workbench calculate simulated AfD support across demographic slices and German federal states?

This workbench calculates an illustrative AfD voter share using an additive linear heuristic. Starting from an 18.0% baseline, the script applies additive point adjustments for geographic macro-regions, age brackets, vocational attainment, urban settlement types, and two linear slider offsets centered at index 50. The resulting cohort percentage dynamically redistributes simulated vote shares across German parties and scales the cartogram bubbles and state ranking table.

All party shares, state base percentages, and shift percentages are synthetic heuristic fixtures implemented in JavaScript, not live exit polls, official Bundeswahlleiter election returns, or econometric regressions. The competitor party shares in the bar chart are algebraically partitioned from the remaining non-AfD percentage using fixed scaling weights.

Try a worked example

Switch the 'Region Selection' dropdown from 'Eastern Germany (Saxony/Thuringia)' to 'Western Germany (Industrial Core)' while leaving all other controls at their defaults. The calculation engine replaces the +10.5 point Eastern premium with a -1.5 point Western adjustment: base 18.0 - 1.5 + 2.8 (age 35-54) + 2.5 (vocational) + 2.4 (rural) + 2.24 (economic delta) + 2.10 (cultural delta) = 26.54%, which the tool clamps and rounds to an observed '28.5%' share (down from the 32.4% fixture preset), updating both the hero metric and the D3 comparison chart.

Additive Point Mechanics

The script uses an additive scoring formula starting from an 18.0% constant. Regional selections alter the score by +10.5 points for Eastern Germany, -1.5 for Western Germany, -1.0 for Southern Germany, or -3.5 for Northern Coastal states. Educational credentials adjust the baseline by +2.5 for vocational training, +1.8 for secondary school, and -6.5 for university education.

The Economic Insecurity and Cultural Grievance sliders evaluate deviations from an index midpoint of 50. Each point above 50 on the economic scale adds 0.08 percentage points, while each point above 50 on the cultural scale adds 0.06 percentage points. The total calculated AfD share is clamped between an absolute floor of 8.0% and a ceiling of 52.0%.

State Cartogram and Party Partitioning

When the computed cohort share shifts, the German state cartogram recomputes each state's simulated share from a hardcoded base (such as Saxony at 34.5% or Bavaria at 16.8%). For Eastern states, the adjustment scales by 0.7 times the deviation from 25.0%, whereas Western states scale by 0.35 times the deviation.

In the comparison bar visual, the remainder of the electorate (100 minus the simulated AfD share) is partitioned across competitor parties using fixed ratios: CDU/CSU receives 44% of the remainder, SPD receives 28%, the Greens receive 16%, and remaining groups receive 12%.