Afghanistan Aid & Engagement Explorer

Aid Trajectory (% of Baseline)

Aid Level Area = Cumulative Aid

20-Year Projections

Humanitarian Need Reform Progress Donor Leverage

Engagement Posture

Sustained Aid + Engagement · Need 68 · Reform 16 · Leverage 78

Model Assumptions

Baseline Annual Aid$1,200M

Initial Humanitarian Need Index100 (crisis peak)

Aid Elasticity of Need-0.45

Internal Reform Speed0.8%/year

Engagement Leverage Decay0.92/year

Projection Horizon20 years

Source: The Economist — "Reform of Afghanistan's vile government must come largely from within, and could take decades. But donors should stop cutting humanitarian aid—and democracies should talk to the Taliban."

Model: aid elasticity -0.45, reform 0.8%/yr, leverage decay 0.92/yr. Not a prediction — a thinking tool.

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