AI Capability Horizon & Scaling Visualizer 2024–2030 Empirical Simulation

⚡ Scaling Parameters

Compute Annual Growth (FLOPs) 4.2x / yr

Algorithmic Multiplier 3.0x eq.

Reasoning Step Depth (Horizon) 12 steps

Target Cognitive Domain

🎯 Scenario Presets

Benchmark Latent Capability

Operational Enterprise Adoption

Human Expert Threshold

🧩 Agentic Task-Horizon Breakdown Matrix

Capability Overhang Window

18 Months

Latent benchmark dynamic model capabilities exceed enterprise deployment velocity by ~1.5 years.

Emergent Threshold Date

Q3 2026

Projected date when 12-step task horizon passes 90% autonomous success rate.

Target Step Success Prob ($P_{total}$)

84.2%

Assuming 98.6% per-step accuracy over 12 sequential steps.

🧪 Workflow Stress-Tester

Simulate compound error propagation across multi-step autonomous dependencies:

Step Accuracy ($\epsilon$) 98.5%