AI Capex & Semiconductor Sentiment Ripple Navigator

Dynamic second-order transmission model: Jensen demand catalysts → Tier-1 Capex → CoWoS/HBM capacity → SOX Multiple Revisions

Signal: Jensen Catalyzed (+28.5%)
Macro Shocks & Scenarios
Transmission Parameters
Hyperscaler Capex Delta +28.5%
Foundry CoWoS Capacity Run 94%
HBM3e / HBM4 Queue Pressure 1.15x
Interconnect & Optics Multiplier 1.32x
Node Inspector: Select node in graph
Click on any supply chain echelon node to inspect unit economics and elasticity sensitivity.
Aggregated Hardware Demand
$142.8B
CoWoS Deficit Gap
+14.2% Overload
SOX Sentiment Delta
+18.4% Multiple Exp
Echelon Bottlenecks & Margins Real-time Telemetry
Echelon Lead-Time Margin Δ Stress
Second-Order Ripple Matrix
• Hyperscaler Cash Flow: Reinvestment rate accelerates to 38.2% of cloud EBITDA.
• Packaging Pricing Power: Foundry gross margins expand +280 bps.
• Memory Squeeze: HBM wafer allocation crowd-out drives commodity DRAM prices +16.5%.
• Optics Velocity: 800G/1.6T transceiver bill-of-materials ratio rises to 18.4% of total cluster cost.
Grounding: Derived from Jensen Huang datacenter guidance & forward semiconductor supply elasticity models. Preserves local state across sessions.

A saved supply-chain diagram and independent assigned formulas

Read the explanation

The saved diagram contains eight fixed nodes and nine directed links. Two spending nodes join accelerators; accelerators branch to foundry, memory and interconnect; those three join systems, then sentiment. Four assigned horizontal columns are sixty, two hundred thirty, four hundred and five hundred seventy source pixels, with equal one hundred seventy pixel gaps. Here each gap is drawn two hundred fifty pixels, a scale of twenty five seventeenths. Lines reveal the actual stored connections, not measured money flowing through suppliers. Telemetry is computed separately from slider formulas; this graph performs no supply-chain propagation or market data request. Vendor names, products and the news context are saved labels, not independently current facts. Default assigned foundry utilization ninety four is multiplied by one plus capex growth twenty eight point five percent, then by one point zero five. Demand index is one hundred twenty six point eight two nine five. Subtracting one hundred yields deficit twenty six point eight two nine five. At two pixels per index unit baseline one hundred measures two hundred, demand two hundred fifty three point six five nine and excess fifty three point six five nine. Raising the utilization slider therefore increases modeled demand as well as the separate stress classification. This source formula does not divide real capacity into real demand. A positive index deficit is an assigned arithmetic outcome, not a verified packaging shortage or a supplier delivery forecast. The sovereign preset changes total-capex computation by an extra one point one two multiplier only while its exact preset name is active. With growth forty two percent, normal capex is one hundred fifty six point two billion assigned dollars, and the sovereign named case one hundred seventy four point nine four four. Touching a slider changes the name to Custom Scenario and removes the extra multiplier even if the numeric slider values stay equal. At one point five pixels per billion normal one hundred fifty six point two measures two hundred thirty four point three, named case one hundred seventy four point nine four four two hundred sixty two point four one six and difference eighteen point seven four four twenty eight point one one six. Native JSON and CSV handlers are registered before missing D3 drawing, so actual local downloads can still work while the diagram fails. No actual capital budget, trade, supplier shipment or equity return is verified.

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