Existential Risk Probability & Consensus Mapping
D3 Visual Cluster
Investigation Quick Presets:
Active Slider Marker
Red Line (10% Marker)
AI Researchers & Frontier Labs
Public / Political Statements
Policy Impact Assessment
Real-time Model
Projected Safety Gain
34.2%
Mitigation of catastrophic failure mode
Mitigation & Compliance Cost
$45.0B
Industry-wide compute & verification burden
Statement Analysis: IGN Breaking Report
IGN reported that Donald Trump has characterized AI safety warnings as a “hoax”, specifically dismissing claims that advanced artificial intelligence presents an existential hazard with a greater than 10% probability of causing human extinction.
“Donald Trump has called AI safety warnings a ‘hoax’ in response to claims the technology has a greater than 10% chance of killing all humans.”
In contrast, consensus surveys among top AI researchers (including Yoshua Bengio, Geoffrey Hinton, and frontier lab leads at Anthropic) consistently locate existential risk (p(doom)) within the 10%–25% bracket, directly triggering standard emergency risk-management protocols.