AI Catastrophic Risk Calculator & Threshold Explorer

Anthropic Safety Report Horizon

Existential Risk Horizon Projection (0–25 Years)

Cumulative probability trajectory modeling cumulative threshold exceedance vs. alignment mitigation.

Threshold Watch
Elevated Risk Threshold Exceeded 10-Year Risk: 14.2%
10-Year Projected Risk
14.2%
Critical Horizon Exceedance
8.4 yrs
Mitigation Confidence
62.1%
IGN Report 10% Marker
+4.2%
Projected Risk Curve (P_existential)
Confidence Interval Band (±1σ)
Anthropic >10% Decade Threshold
Mitigation Buffer Intersection

Model Parameters

Adjust dynamic levers
4.2
Annual effective FLOP expansion across frontier autonomous clusters.
1.1
Rate of mechanistic interpretability and steering verification progress.
10.5%
Prior anchor from cited Anthropic researcher threshold (>10%).
78%
Maximum unmonitored decision-making scope allowed before interlocks engage.
10 yrs
Policy lag and global regulatory response coordination window.

Source Citation & Evidence Context

“An Anthropic safety researcher has said there is a greater than 10% chance that AI ‘could kill all humans’ within the next decade.”
Source Account: @IGN (Verified X Monetization Post)
Canonical Status ID: 2097656369390166496
Original Article Link: IGN News Article Coverage
Analytical Purpose: Explores the sensitivity of the stated >10% probability estimate against differential rates of compute scaling vs. alignment safety research.

Model Assumptions & Methodological Limitations

1. Hazard Function: Risk is modeled as a cumulative hazard function where compute acceleration compounds faster than linear alignment velocity unless capped by strict international governance.

2. Subjective Probabilities: Frontier researcher statements reflect subjective Bayesian beliefs under incomplete visibility into autonomous agency and latent goal alignment.

3. Countermeasures: Increased mitigation confidence (green metric) dynamically compresses the hazard accumulation rate over the 10 to 20-year horizon.

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