AI Safety Intelligence Telemetry

AI Catastrophic Risk & Safeguard Timeline Explorer

Interactive 10-year existential hazard pacing model assessing Evan Hubinger’s >10% decadal risk warning and Anthropic researcher departure dynamics.

Source context: CNBC report on Anthropic safety researcher warnings and lab resignation alerts.
Model Parameters 10-Yr Horizon
10%
Evan Hubinger's estimate: >10% chance AI could kill all humans within a decade.
82
Frequency of safety researcher departures protesting reckless speed over safeguards.
45
Internal Responsible Scaling Policy (RSP) enforcement and deployment pause triggers.
1.2x
Ratio of compute/talent dedicated strictly to alignment vs raw frontier capability.
Cumulative 10-Yr Risk
14.2%
Baseline + compound deficit
Safeguard Deficit Index
28.4
Pacing gap score (>25 alert)
Safety Researcher Benchmark
Evan Hubinger
Anthropic Research Team
System Risk Assessment
High Risk Threshold Exceeded
Recommended Mitigation: Mandatory pause on autonomous recursive self-improvement loops

Decadal Cumulative Hazard Curve (Years 1 to 10)

D3.js dynamic projection
Projected Hazard Trajectory
10% Hubinger Warning Baseline
14% Critical Danger Threshold

10-Year Annual Risk Progression Table

Horizon Year Annual Increment Cumulative P[Doom] Safeguard Deficit Containment Status
Enjoy this tool? Build your own with Super