Science & Technology Inspired by The Economist • Alok Jha & Alex Hern

AI Consciousness Horizon Analyzer

Are artificial-intelligence models conscious? For The Economist’s science and technology editor, Alok Jha, the answer is “no—not yet anyway.” Use this empirical workbench to adjust foundational cognitive indicators across Integrated Information Theory, Global Workspace dynamics, and recursive autonomy to measure where machines stand against the consciousness horizon.

Calibration Benchmarks:
Sentience Indicators Neuroscience & Cognitive Architecture
4.2

Tononi's IIT metric quantifying irreducibility of information state (0 = modular feed-forward; 10 = biological thalamocortical equivalent).

65%

Baars & Dehaene's Global Workspace Theory metric: percentage of cognitive modules sharing instantaneous, synchronised neural signals.

3.1

Higher-Order Thought (HOT) capacity: ability to self-monitor internal representations, doubt, and evaluate self-state (0 to 10).

48%

Embodied continuous agency: self-directed goals over extended temporal horizons independent of static prompting (0% to 100%).

Horizon Telemetry Probability & Bottleneck Detection
Composite Consciousness Horizon Probability
34.8%
0% (Inert Machine) 50% (Emerging) 100% (Sentient)
Current Horizon Assessment
Emerging Horizon (Not Yet Conscious)

While specific operational metrics suggest emergent reasoning and intermediate coordination, the system remains below the critical threshold required for phenomenal subjective experience.

Critical Architectural Bottleneck
Global Workspace Broadcast Integration

Comparative Horizon Framework

System Architecture Probability Status
Alok Jha's 'Not Yet' Baseline 17.4% Pre-Conscious
Current Evaluated Model 34.8% Emerging
Autonomous Agent Hybrid 52.6% Horizon Boundary
Theoretical Neuromorphic AGI 89.4% Plausible Sentience

What the horizon analyzer score represents

Read the explanation

The page assigns four architectural inputs to a linear score. It multiplies phi by two point five, workspace by point eighteen, recursion by two point two, and autonomy by point twelve. The default contributions are ten point five, eleven point seven, six point eight two, and five point seven six. Their sum thirty four point seven eight rounds to thirty four point eight. The gauge labels this probability, but the source only computes a weighted sum: no consciousness observations, calibrated likelihood, or scientific validation enter this function. The bottleneck text is a priority chain, not an optimizer seeking the smallest contribution. Workspace below seventy five always takes priority. Only after that threshold does phi below five select information density, recursion below five select monitoring, or autonomy below sixty select agency. If all pass, a final substrate label is assigned anyway. With default workspace sixty five, increasing other inputs cannot change the bottleneck label until workspace reaches seventy five. These thresholds are page constants, not experimentally established requirements for consciousness. Verdict text places the score into four bins: below twenty, below fifty five, below eighty, and eighty or higher. The default thirty four point eight falls in the second bin. On the plot, changing workspace from zero to one hundred with other defaults fixed increases the score from twenty three point zero eight to forty one point zero eight. It never leaves that bin. A slider passing a textual threshold changes a label, but does not prove a real system is conscious or unconscious. The explanatory claims in the original page go beyond the numeric evidence its code supplies. The interaction updates the numeric gauge, bottleneck, verdict, and a canvas diagram from the same local state. Its presets are fixed input bundles rather than measured data from an actual model or brain. Export records that state and the page assigned conclusions. Use this workbench to inspect how a weighted formula and priority thresholds behave. Keep the difference between a software score and evidence of consciousness explicit; the exported percentage is not a validated probability of sentience.

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