Anthropic Thesis

AI Consensus Break & Frontier Scaling Simulator

Amodei Consensus Presets
Model Parameters
Scaling Exponent (α) 0.35
Initial Compute (FLOPs) 1e26
Consensus Growth (%/yr) 15%
Economic Lag (Months) 12m
Milestone Thresholds

Drag circles on chart or adjust directly to test capability breakpoints.

Consensus Status: Analyzing... Year: --
Break Year
2027
Horizon Delta
-24 mos
Divergence Mag
4.20x
LOGARITHMIC CAPABILITY TRAJECTORY (2025–2035)
Frontier Scaling
Linear Consensus
Time Horizon: 2028.0
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