Anthropic AI Consensus Break & Frontier Scaling Simulator

Amodei Consensus Presets

Model Parameters

Scaling Exponent (α) 0.35

Initial Compute (FLOPs) 1e26

Consensus Growth (%/yr) 15%

Economic Lag (Months) 12m

Milestone Thresholds

Drag circles on chart or adjust directly to test capability breakpoints.

Break Year

2027

Horizon Delta

-24 mos

Divergence Mag

4.20x

LOGARITHMIC CAPABILITY TRAJECTORY (2025–2035)

Frontier Scaling

Linear Consensus

Time Horizon: 2028.0