Policy Scenarios
Frontier Parameters
Compute Growth (x FLOPs/yr)
2.5x
Safety Research Allocation
35%
Governance & Verification Cap
0.80
Baseline Capability (Index 0-100)
78.5
10-Year Frontier Trajectory Model (D3 Engine)
Year 0 to Year 10 Projections
Raw Frontier Capability
Alignment & Control Maturity
Cumulative Catastrophic Risk Exposure
Strategic Impact Analysis
Projected Risk Score (10-Yr)
14.2%
Catastrophic failure probability under governance
Economic Delay Index
2.1 yrs
Delay in frontier GDP transformation
Safety Maturity Timeline
4.8 yrs
Time to robust alignment verification
Recommended Action
Immediate Slowdown & Verification
Slowdown coordinates verification before capability outpaces safety.