Explore the high-stakes policy frontier: evaluate how domestic safety certification constraints, advanced semiconductor export controls, and sovereign R&D subsidies balance catastrophic frontier failure risks against international capability parity.
Under current parameters, the US maintains an operational technological lead of 2.4 velocity points. High export controls (70%) suppress non-allied frontier hardware replication, while balanced internal safety regulations keep catastrophic failure exposure capped at 14.5%.
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This simulator models how national safety regulations, compute export controls, and research subsidies jointly dictate international artificial intelligence capability leads and catastrophic risk. In the baseline preset, safety regulation sits at 55 percent, producing a US velocity score of 74.2 against China's 71.8 and limiting catastrophic breakout risk to 14.5 percent. Selecting Unrestricted Acceleration drops safety regulation to 15 percent and boosts subsidies to 90 percent. This widens the technological edge, but accelerates catastrophic risk upward to nearly 27 percent. Users can drag individual policy levers, observe live particle simulation bottlenecks, and click Export Telemetry to extract verified mathematical decision weights for policy briefings.