STRATEGIC GOVERNANCE SIMULATOR

AI Safety vs Geopolitical Acceleration Policy Sandbox

“AI does not have to kill every human to bring about a catastrophe. The model-makers’ warnings should be taken seriously. Yet America will struggle to make AI safe while staying ahead of China.” Explore the trade-offs between frontier alignment guardrails, hardware export controls, and international capability parity.

Policy Levers

CALIBRATED

US Frontier Safety Investment 45%

Mandated share of frontier lab compute and R&D devoted to alignment and red-teaming.

Verification Strictness 60%

Third-party evals and government licensing before model weights can be trained or published.

Compute Export Controls 75%

Severity of semiconductor, wafer-fab, and smuggling restrictions targeted at geopolitical rivals.

International Oversight 40%

Multilateral non-proliferation treaties and joint verification inspection protocols.

CATASTROPHIC RISK PROBABILITY

18.4%

Annual frontier breach hazard

GLOBAL SAFETY INDEX

68.5/100

Composite alignment score

RELATIVE US CAPABILITY LEAD

3.2 months

Lead over nearest rival (China)

GEOPOLITICAL TENSION LEVEL

Elevated

Diplomatic friction threshold

Trajectory Modeling (Months 0 to 36)

Projected frontier intelligence index vs Catastrophic Risk threshold boundary

US Capability

China Capability

Hazard Zone

United States AI Ecosystem Frontier Velocity: 94.2/100

Regulatory Compliance Overhead24.0%

Strict domestic evaluations delay deployments but significantly reduce the likelihood of uncontrolled autonomous propagation.

China AI Ecosystem Frontier Velocity: 86.8/100

Hardware Supply Degradation60.0%

Export controls create a compute deficit, forcing algorithmic efficiency while increasing pressure to shortcut safety audits.

Executive Strategic Assessment

Analysis prepared under model framework • Status: Real-time Projection

Under current parameters (US Safety Investment at 45%, Verification at 60%, Export Controls at 75%), the United States maintains a slim capability lead of 3.2 months while restricting annual catastrophic hazard to 18.4%.

Dilemma Balance: Aggressive export controls provide a temporary buffer, but excessive verification friction without international coordination risks eroding the US technological edge.
Catastrophic Exposure: Global safety index of 68.5/100 indicates moderate resilience against rogue biological design and critical infrastructure cyber-sabotage.
Diplomatic Friction: Geopolitical tension remains Elevated, limiting the viability of shared emergency shutdown compacts.