Federal AI Legislation Probability & Safeguard Simulator
Evaluate how lobbying, risk skepticism, and regulatory safeguards deflect the Kalshi 10% baseline federal AI legislation odds.
10%
Current federal prediction market consensus for passage this year
80/100
Corporate lobbying against mandatory frontier compute & weight disclosure
50/100
Sentiment alignment with 'AI takeover is a hoax' narrative
65/100
Legislative push for critical infrastructure & model auditing protections
Source Dispatch Grounding:
Based on BNO News dispatch: “Trump says fears about AI 'taking over the world' or 'destroying humanity' are a 'HOAX', after calls for more safeguards. Comprehensive AI legislation at the federal level has a 10% chance of being passed this year, according to @Kalshi.”
Forecast Telemetry & Impact Matrix
Ready for Policy Simulation
Adjusted Passage Odds
14.2%
Regulatory Gap Index
85.8%