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AI Moratorium Policy Simulator & Legislative Impact Explorer

Legislative Controls Frontier AI Focus

12 Months
0 mo (No pause) 12 mo 24 mo 36 mo
10^25 FLOPs
10^24 (Broad) 10^25 (Frontier) 10^26 10^27 (Hyperscale)
Moratorium Target Scope
Legislative Levers
Open-Source Exemptions Protects academic & weights-available models < threshold
Federal Procurement Ban Restricts agencies from contracting non-compliant models
Chip Export & Fab Caps Imposes hardware quotas on frontier AI accelerator chips
Projected Policy Regime
Balanced compliance framework with frontier AI safeguards
Balanced Moratorium
Federal Alignment Score
79.0
Congressional consensus probability (0-100)
R&D Velocity Index
68.4
Compared to baseline 100 without pause
Safety Risk Reduction
34.2%
Catastrophic & systemic risk mitigation
Startup Compliance Cost
$45.0M
Average ecosystem licensing & audit impact
Open-Source Model Share
42.5%
Community availability of frontier research
5-Year Trajectory: Innovation Velocity vs. Safety Compliance Index
R&D Velocity
Safety Index
Legislative Impact Summary: The proposed 12-month pause targeting frontier training above 10^25 FLOPs, paired with open-source exemptions and federal procurement conditions, delivers a 34.2% safety risk mitigation while preserving an R&D velocity index of 68.4. Estimated venture and startup compliance overhead totals $45.0M, avoiding destructive lab displacement.

Simulating AI Moratorium Trade-Offs

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The AI Moratorium Policy Simulator balances research velocity against catastrophic safety risks across configurable regulatory levers. Extending pause duration directly subtracts two point two velocity points per month, while scaling safety mitigation and startup overhead. Selecting the G7 Strict preset activates export quotas and broadens target scope, plunging trajectory growth but driving consensus under fifty.

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