AI Moratorium Risk & Impact Scenario Planner

Policy Presets Model v2.4

Parameters

Pause Duration 24 mo

Target Scope Frontier Only

Safety Verification Stringency 85%

Compute Threshold Cap 10²⁵ FLOPs

Economic Multiplier 0.82x

Trajectory Equilibrium & Outcomes Computed Real-Time

Safety Risk Reduction

68.5%

Catastrophic threat mitigation

Economic Friction

21.4%

Index vs baseline GDP growth

Innovation Delay

24 mo

Effective capability lag

Cumulative Safety Risk Mitigation

Innovation Friction Curve

Equilibrium Intersection

Executive Recommendation

Targeted verification pause achieves 68.5% safety risk reduction while limiting GDP friction to 21.4% over 24 months.

Systemic Tradeoffs Audited

Alignment Certainty Factor 74.2%

Global Treaty Compliance Feasibility 62.8%

R&D Capital Relocation Risk 28.5%

Hardware Verification Feasibility 88.0%

Source Note: Calculated using compute governance models and verifiable delay dynamics. As argued by Noonan, unchecked acceleration increases catastrophic failure probability, but international parity friction requires targeted, non-punitive enforcement windows.