AI P(doom) Skepticism Calculator & Evidence Splitter

Preset Scenarios:

1. Raw Probability & Vibe Ratio Self-reported claim

Raw Claimed P(doom) 65%

1% (Optimist) 50% (Coin Flip) 99% (Extinction Inevitable)

Empirical vs Speculative Split 20% Emp / 80% Vibe

■ Empirical Benchmarks ■ Speculative Vibes

Grain-of-Salt Divisor 5x Divisor

1x (Accept Vibes) 5x (Gizmodo Rule) 10x (Extreme Skeptic)

Deconstruction Formula:
Adjusted P(doom) = Empirical Core + (Speculative Vibes ÷ Salt Multiplier). Isolates concrete benchmarks from sci-fi narrative drift.

2. Skepticism Workbench Results Calibrated reality

Adjusted P(doom) 13%

Empirical Confidence Low (20%)

Skepticism Diagnostic

Vibe-Heavy Speculation

Divide by five grains of salt and focus on current benchmark realities.

Source Grounding: Based on Gizmodo's editorial critique ‘P(doom)’ Is Just Vibes Masquerading as Science: “Take the statistical AI doomsday warnings and divide them by a grain of salt.” Research snapshot recorded September 2026.