AI Milestone Risk Matrix & Threshold Explorer

Milestone Presets:

Threshold Parameter Sliders

FRONTIER VARIABLES

Compute Scale (FLOPs) 1.0 × 10²⁴

10²⁴ (GPT-4 tier) 10²⁶ (Frontier Cluster) 10²⁸ (Hyper-AGI)

Cumulative training and inference compute volume; exponential scaling accelerates latent emergent capability jumps.

Autonomous Decision Scope Guided Copilot

Copilot Sub-Task Multi-Day Sovereign

Span of operational independence without requiring human consensus or goal confirmation.

Verification & Oversight Latency Synchronous HITL

Real-Time Hourly Sync Batch Review Async / Zero

Delay between model action execution and human or formal verification audit log validation.

External Tooling Agency Isolated Read Sandbox

Read-Only Ephemeral VM Cloud Infra Live Financial/BGP

Permitted execution environment, network access privileges, and physical/digital effector endpoints.

Safe Horizon (0-30)

Monitored Tension (31-60)

Critical Containment (61-80)

Irreversible Divergence (81+)

SAFE HORIZON

Composite Risk Index

24.5

Nominal Safe Envelope

Tripwire Proximity

18%

To Critical Loss-of-Control

Containment Half-Life

> 120 Days

Mean Time To Breakout

Vector Threat Profile 4 VECTORS

Phase Matrix: Autonomy vs Hazard (X: 2.1, Y: 1.8)

LIVE SYSTEM DEFENSES

Automated Continuous Red-Teaming

Deploys fine-tuned adversarial attacker models executing continuous jailbreak and deception discovery.

-14% Loss-of-Control Risk

Hardware Governance & Key Ceremonies

Cryptographically signed weights, physical HSM enclave execution, and multi-party quorum switches.

-22% Exfiltration & Tool Hijacking

Dual-Model Constitutional Circuit Breaker

Independent air-gapped auditor model with authority to sever inference cluster power if invariants fail.