U.S. AI Safety Bill Market Engine LMSR / CPMM

Market probability & depth simulator grounded in @Polymarket contract telemetry

Implied Probability 20.0%
YES Share Price $0.200
NO Share Price $0.800
Pool Liquidity (b) $10,000
LMSR Marginal Price Bonding Curve & Order Depth
Current Q_YES: 0 | Q_NO: 0
Net Market Value $10,000
Max Slippage ($2.5k) +2.3%
Liquidity Elasticity Medium
Total Volume $2,500
Execute Simulated Trade
Est. Shares Purchased: 10,880.8 shares
Avg Price per Share: $0.230
New Market Probability: 26.1%
Legislative Milestone Payoff Matrix

Calculated return on a $1,000 YES position bought at current market price ($0.200).

Simulated Trade Ledger 1 Order
Trader Side Amount Avg Price Prob Impact
LMSR Cost Function: C = b * ln(e^(q1/b) + e^(q2/b))

LMSR Bonding Curves and Probability Discovery

Read the explanation

In Hanson's Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule, the marginal probability equals the logistic sigmoid of outstanding share differences scaled by liquidity parameter b. When a trader executes a twenty-five hundred dollar buy order on YES, the automated market maker purchases new shares along the exponential curve. Because every incremental share costs more than the last, price slippage occurs, driving the implied market probability upward from twenty percent to twenty-six point one percent. Adjusting the liquidity parameter b alters market elasticity: higher liquidity flattens the curve to dampen slippage, while lower b creates rapid price discovery.

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