U.S. AI Safety Bill Market Engine LMSR / CPMM

Market probability & depth simulator grounded in @Polymarket contract telemetry

Implied Probability 20.0%
YES Share Price $0.200
NO Share Price $0.800
Pool Liquidity (b) $10,000
LMSR Marginal Price Bonding Curve & Order Depth
Current Q_YES: 0 | Q_NO: 0
Net Market Value $10,000
Max Slippage ($2.5k) +2.3%
Liquidity Elasticity Medium
Total Volume $2,500
Execute Simulated Trade
Est. Shares Purchased: 10,880.8 shares
Avg Price per Share: $0.230
New Market Probability: 26.1%
Legislative Milestone Payoff Matrix

Calculated return on a $1,000 YES position bought at current market price ($0.200).

Simulated Trade Ledger 1 Order
Trader Side Amount Avg Price Prob Impact
LMSR Cost Function: C = b * ln(e^(q1/b) + e^(q2/b))
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