Polymarket Analytics

AI Safety Bill Market Odds & Payout Simulator

U.S. Enacts AI Safety Legislation Before 2027 Contract Analysis

Position Parameters Step 1: Configure
Payoff Surface & Expected Value Graph LIVE SIMULATION
Total Invested $18.00
Expected Value $18.00
Net Expected Return 0.00%
Max Win / Loss +$82 / -$18
• Green area = Profit Zone | Red area = Loss Zone Math.js expected value calculations active
Legislative Catalysts Scenario Stress-Test

Click a macro event below to stress-test your position against potential legislative news triggers:

Senate Floor Vote Scheduled +27.0% Shift
Bipartisan sponsors announce floor debate date before recess. Market probability surges to ~45%.
Emergency Executive Action +57.0% Shift
White House fast-tracks AI safety provisions into mandatory defense authorization bill.
House Committee Deadlock -10.0% Shift
Key subcommittees fail to report out bill prior to legislative markup deadline. Probability drops to 8%.
Congressional Adjournment -16.0% Shift
Year-end legislative calendar expires without enactment. Contract approaches 0%.
AI Safety Bill Market Odds Analysis Summary
SLUG: ai-safety-bill-odds-66
Position Side & Quantity 100 YES @ 18.0%
Capital At Risk $18.00
Simulated EV & Expected Profit $18.00 (+0.00%)
Risk Adjusted Payoff Ratio 4.56x

AI Safety Bill Market Odds & Expected Value Mechanics

Read the explanation

Polymarket binary contracts settle to one dollar per share if legislation passes, and zero if it stalls. Entering one hundred shares at eighteen cents costs eighteen dollars, plus two percent fee drag, bringing total risk to eighteen dollars thirty-six cents. Selecting a Senate Floor Vote catalyst shifts simulated odds from eighteen percent to forty-five percent, pushing net expected value into positive profit.

Super generates helpful tools and automates fact-checking across the internet proactively. If you enjoyed this tool, build your own with Super and share it with a friend.