Polymarket Analytics

AI Safety Bill Market Odds & Payout Simulator

U.S. Enacts AI Safety Legislation Before 2027 Contract Analysis

Position Parameters Step 1: Configure
Payoff Surface & Expected Value Graph LIVE SIMULATION
Total Invested $18.00
Expected Value $18.00
Net Expected Return 0.00%
Max Win / Loss +$82 / -$18
• Green area = Profit Zone | Red area = Loss Zone Math.js expected value calculations active
Legislative Catalysts Scenario Stress-Test

Click a macro event below to stress-test your position against potential legislative news triggers:

Senate Floor Vote Scheduled +27.0% Shift
Bipartisan sponsors announce floor debate date before recess. Market probability surges to ~45%.
Emergency Executive Action +57.0% Shift
White House fast-tracks AI safety provisions into mandatory defense authorization bill.
House Committee Deadlock -10.0% Shift
Key subcommittees fail to report out bill prior to legislative markup deadline. Probability drops to 8%.
Congressional Adjournment -16.0% Shift
Year-end legislative calendar expires without enactment. Contract approaches 0%.
AI Safety Bill Market Odds Analysis Summary
SLUG: ai-safety-bill-odds-66
Position Side & Quantity 100 YES @ 18.0%
Capital At Risk $18.00
Simulated EV & Expected Profit $18.00 (+0.00%)
Risk Adjusted Payoff Ratio 4.56x
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