Kushner Warning:
"The AI opportunity is huge, but it would also be a grave error to let excitement weaken our investment discipline." – Thrive Capital Letter
Sensitivity Matrix: Entry ARR Multiple vs. Terminal Exit Multiple
Heatmap reflects Net MOIC under current compute drag and dilution. Hover cells to inspect required ARR and fund IRR.
≥ Hurdle (Target Return)
2.0x – Hurdle (Frothy)
< 2.0x (Value Destruction)
Unit Economics & Margin Decay Profile
| Effective Gross Margin (post-compute) | 37.0% |
| Compute Capex Drag on EBITDA | -$5.4M / yr |
| Multiple Compression Ratio (Entry / Exit) | 2.31x Headwind |
| Max Disciplined Entry Valuation Cap | $328.5M |
| Valuation Froth Premium Paid | +52.2% Overpay |
Terminal Exit Waterfall (Year 6)
| Modeled Terminal ARR (at 45% CAGR) | $112.5M |
| Modeled Exit Enterprise Value | $2,025.0M |
| Retained Ownership after Dilution | 75.0% |
| Net Realized Equity Proceeds | $1,518.8M |
| Gross Margin Adjusted Valuation Multiple | 112.7x (Software-Equivalent) |