Situational Capital Risk Model

Effective Exposure $680M Adjusted asset risk mass

Max Downside Pct 18.4% 95% confidence VaR limit

Recovery Runway 28 mos Liquidity persistence

Fund Risk Tier Moderate-High Composite stress score

❖ Fund Allocation Topology Network (D3.js)

Drag nodes to adjust asset sizing

Initial Fund Size ($M) $1000M

Drawdown Severity (%) 45%

New Private Deployment ($M) $400M

Prediction Market Consensus Prob (%) 68%

Market Volatility Stress Tier

📈 Drawdown Recovery & Stress Simulation

Recovery Probability vs Market Sentiment Matrix

Sentiment \ Deploy	$200M	$400M	$600M

Reproducible Parameter Proof Surface

State: Fund=$1000M | Drawdown=45% | Deploy=$400M | MarketProb=0.68 | VolTier=High

Calc: EffExp=680M | MaxDownside=18.4% | Runway=28mos | Score=Moderate-High