Album Equivalent Units & Trajectory Modeler

Simulate on-demand audio streams (SEA), digital track sales (TEA), and pure album purchases according to Billboard / Luminate / RIAA conversion rules. Project chart rank thresholds and multi-platinum trajectory curves.

Grounded Presets:
This Week Units
33,000
23,000 SEA + 850 TEA + 5,150 Pure
Cumulative Total
6,017,000
6x Multi-Platinum
Est. Billboard 200 Rank
#10
Top 10 Benchmark Band
RIAA Certification Milestone Progress 3,983,000 units to Diamond (10M)
📀
Gold
500K
💿
Platinum
1,000,000
💿×3
3× Multi
3,000,000
💿×6
6× Multi
6,000,000
💎
Diamond
10,000,000
Weekly Units & Cumulative Trajectory Forecast
Scrub graph to inspect future week
Streaming (SEA) 81.8%
27,000
23,000 paid + 4,000 ad-supported
Track Sales (TEA) 2.6%
850
From 8,500 individual track downloads
Pure Album Sales 15.6%
5,150
Physical LPs, CDs & full digital downloads
Trajectory model active. Noah Kahan – Stick Season loaded.

SEA 1,250 vs 3,750 Stream Split

Under Billboard / Luminate formula (instituted mid-2018), 1,250 on-demand subscription streams equal one album unit, while 3,750 ad-supported / programmed streams equal one unit. This prevents free streaming inflation.

TEA (Track Equivalent Album)

Ten individual track purchases count as 1 Track Equivalent Album unit. As digital downloads decline in favor of streaming, TEA typically represents 1% to 5% of modern album consumption.

Longevity Decay Curve

Catalog powerhouses (like Stick Season, SOS, or Fleetwood Mac's Rumours) exhibit low weekly decay (1–4%), stabilizing at 20k–40k units/week for years, whereas front-loaded rap or pop debuts often drop 40–60% by week 2.

View Official Industry Conversion Math & Billboard Benchmarks
Metric Conversion Ratio Formula
SEA (Paid Tier) 1,250 streams = 1 Album Unit Paid Streams ÷ 1,250
SEA (Free / Ad Tier) 3,750 streams = 1 Album Unit Ad Streams ÷ 3,750
TEA (Track Sales) 10 Track Downloads = 1 Album Unit Track Downloads ÷ 10
Pure Sales 1 Physical / Digital Album = 1 Unit Pure Purchases × 1
RIAA Tiers Gold (500K) • Platinum (1M) • Multi (2M+) • Diamond (10M) Cumulative Total Units

Saved streaming equivalents and decay arithmetic

Read the explanation

The saved model divides twenty-eight million seven hundred fifty thousand paid streams by twelve hundred fifty, giving twenty-three thousand units. Fifteen million ad-supported streams divided by thirty-seven hundred fifty gives four thousand. Bars share zero at point zero two five pixels per equivalent unit. These are implemented scenario divisors, not verification of current certification policy or real artist totals. Streaming equivalents sum to twenty-seven thousand. Eight thousand five hundred track sales divided by ten adds eight hundred fifty; five thousand one hundred fifty pure sales adds directly. Total modeled week is thirty-three thousand. Bars compare streaming and total at point zero two pixels per equivalent unit. Rank labels are programmed threshold estimates, not actual chart positions. For the next modeled week, four-percent decay leaves ninety-six percent of current thirty-three thousand, giving thirty-one thousand six hundred eighty. Bars share zero at point zero one eight pixels per weekly unit. Repeated multiplication models a hypothetical declining sequence, not observed demand or official certification. Complete raw native JSON and reset are preserved; real performance remains unverified.

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