Amazon Tipping Point Simulator Nature Hydrology Model

Atmospheric moisture recycling ('flying rivers') & cascading savannization risk

Bifurcation Solver: Active
Scenario Presets
Stressor Forcing
Deforestation Rate17.5%
El Niño SST Anomaly+2.4°C
Global Warming (ΔT)+1.8°C
System Telemetry
Total Flux Loss
-34.2%
Vulnerable Basins
3 / 6
Recovery Target
8.5%
Cascade Active
YES
Critical Transition (Savannization Risk)
Hydrological Moisture Cascade ("Flying Rivers") Windward Atlantic → Andes Transport
💧 Blue Streamlines: High Atmospheric Moisture Flux 🔥 Orange/Red Stippling: Forest Dieback & Savannization
Basin Resilience & Evapotranspiration Matrix
Basin Region Forest Cover ET Flux (mm/d) Precip Deficit Resilience State
Bifurcation Phase Diagram Hysteresis Loop
Bi-stability Dynamics: The tropical rainforest recycles up to 50% of its own rainfall. When combined stress breaches the tipping threshold (~20-25% deforestation), the stable rainforest attractor collapses into an open savanna state, requiring an aggressive recovery threshold (≤8.5% deforestation) to restore due to hysteresis.
Compound Sensitivity Breakdown
Deforestation Impact 51%
El Niño Drought Forcing 32%
VPD Thermal Stress 17%

Amazon Tipping Point Simulator

Read the explanation

The Amazon rainforest recycles up to half its own rainfall through aerial moisture transport known as flying rivers. When deforestation, El Nino anomalies, and thermal stress compound, downwind basins suffer cumulative moisture deficits. Selecting Compound Shock pushes the system past the tipping threshold into an alternative savanna attractor, requiring aggressive recovery below eight point five percent deforestation to reverse.

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