Game Situation & Tactics2022 ALDS G1 (B9)
Score & Outs
SEA 7 - HOU 5 (2 Out)
Baserunners
1B & 2B
X: -0.35 ft (Inside to LHB)
Z: 2.12 ft (Mid-Low)
Simulated Expected Outcome
Walk-Off 3-Run HR (108.9 mph Exit Velo, 438 ft)
Expected Run Value: +3.00 | WPA: +0.909
Statcast 3D Flight & Strike Zone
LI: 8.4 (Critical)
Historical 9th Inning At-Bat Sequence
Click pitch to replay
Horizontal Break (iHB)
+14.2 in (Arm-side)
Vertical Drop (IVB)
-22.4 in (Sink)
Win Expectancy Curve (WPA)
Astros WE: 100%
Pre-Pitch Astros WE
9.1%
Post-Event Astros WE
100.0%
Matchup Splits & Hit Spray Tendencies
Y. Alvarez vs LHP Sinker/FB:
.382 wOBA / .640 SLG
R. Ray vs LHB:
.215 BAA / 31.2% K-rate
Pull% in High Leverage:
48.5% (RF Crawford Boxes)
Historical Rivalry Context
Alvarez's 3-run walk-off was the first walk-off HR in MLB postseason history by a team trailing by multiple runs with 2 outs. WPA swing (+0.909) is the 2nd largest in postseason history.