BREAKING NEWS THE ATHLETIC COLLEGE FOOTBALL ANALYTICS
Reported via @nytimes • Darrell K Royal Stadium, Austin

The Athletic Live Win Probability & Comeback Explorer

AP Top 5 Showdown • 20-Point Second-Half Rally
TEX
No. 4 AP
Texas Longhorns
Austin, TX • Big 12 / SEC
24
4TH QUARTER
0:00
FINAL • TEXAS 24-23
23
No. 1 AP
Ohio State Buckeyes
Columbus, OH • Big Ten
OSU
Second-Half Win Probability Timeline
CALIBRATED LOGIT ENGINE
Texas Win Probability
99.1%
Ohio State Win Probability
0.9%
HISTORICAL & COUNTERFACTUAL SCENARIOS SELECT PRESET
ATHLETIC GAME ANALYSIS • HISTORIC COMEBACK

Trailing 23-3 deep into the second half with a microscopic 1.4% win probability, No. 4 Texas launched three consecutive 4th-quarter touchdown drives. Hollywood Smothers punched in the decisive go-ahead touchdown with 25 seconds remaining, capping a 20-point deficit erasure to defeat top-ranked Ohio State 24-23.

Interactive Drive & Momentum Simulator
Q4 0:00 (Final)
Halftime (30:00 left) End of Q3 (15:00) Final (0:00)
Possession / Ball Control: Texas
Simulate Drive Outcome: Instant Score / Stop
Drive Log & Probability Shifts Key Sequence
Quarter Score Play & Outcome TX Win%
Sources & Coverage: The Athletic & The New York Times (Texas 24, Ohio State 23, Sept 13, 2026). Texas overcame a 20-point second-half deficit (23-3) with 21 fourth-quarter points, capped by Hollywood Smothers's touchdown with 0:25 remaining. Arch Manning: 23/37, 196 yds, TD.
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