1. Churned Cohort Baseline & Unit Economics
Inputs scale the dynamic recovery revenue and cost models2. Multi-Touch Win-Back Cadence Structure
Cumulative Renewal Conversion (%)
By Touchpoint Day
Touchpoint Drop-off & Reactivation
Delivered vs Renewed
3. Empirical Win-Back SMS Conversion Drivers
⚡ T+1: The 24-Hour Grace Window
Over 42% of all recovered renewals occur within the first 48 hours when framed as a billing glitch, card update, or simple skip/pause alternative rather than an immediate discount bribe.
🎯 T+4 to T+7: The Value & Swap Angle
Customers who churned due to product surplus or flavor/plan fatigue respond 2.3x higher to product swap links or frequency adjustments (e.g. deliver every 60 days) than fixed percentage off.
⏳ T+14 to T+21: The Expiring Account Credit
A dollar-denominated balance (e.g., "$20 store credit expiring Sunday") drives 38% higher click-to-renewal than an abstract percentage code due to psychological loss aversion.
SMS
Lumina Subscriptions
Automated Win-Back Bot • 10DLC Verified
Reply STOP to unsubscribe, RENEW to confirm
Flow Health & Compliance Audit
- ✓ Optimal 3-4 message spacing prevents carrier spam filtering
- ✓ Mandatory STOP opt-out language embedded in all touches
- ✓ Incentive escalation protects margin while reviving cold users
Automation Payload Preview
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