Sports Betting Variance & Risk Engine

Bankroll Survival & Variance Simulator

@br_betting: “I DIDNT LOSE MY ENTIRE BANKROLL IN WEEK 1 LETS GOOOO”
Context: NFL Week 1 opening bankroll preservation benchmark
Discipline Profiles
$1,000
2.5%
52.4%
-110
10 Weeks
8 Bets
Monte Carlo Bankroll Projections (100 Paths) 100 Independent Runs

Week 1 Survival Checkpoint

Cleared Week 1 without total ruin: 100/100 simulations still solvent.

Survived
Survival Rate
89.0%
11 of 100 ruined
Median Ending Bankroll
$1,120.50
+12.05% gain
Max Drawdown
18.4%
Across all paths
Week 1 Status
Survived
100% solvency
Standard NFL/NCAAF spread juice (-110) requires a 52.38% win probability to break even. Unit sizing over 3% exponentially escalates ruin variance.
Weekly Simulation Quantile Breakdown 10th, 50th (Median), and 90th Percentiles
Timeline 10th Percentile (Risk) Median (Expected) 90th Percentile (Upside) Surviving Paths Ruin Count
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