B

Bankroll Sizing & Ruin Simulator

A: Micro (1%) Safe Pace
Risk of Ruin (<10% initial): 0.0%
Median Ending Bankroll: $912
Worst Drawdown: -14.2%
Survival (100 Games): 100%
B: Medium (5%) Elevated Risk
Risk of Ruin (<10% initial): 8.4%
Median Ending Bankroll: $640
Worst Drawdown: -58.6%
Survival (100 Games): 91.6%
C: Concentrated (25%) Severe Ruin
Risk of Ruin (<10% initial): 86.2%
Median Ending Bankroll: $0
Worst Drawdown: -98.9%
Survival (100 Games): 13.8%
Strategy A (1%)
Strategy B (5%)
Strategy C (25%)
Sample Paths
Y-Axis: Capital ($) | X-Axis: Games Played
Live Sample Sequence (First 12 Matches)
See how a sequence of coin flips/games alters bankroll trajectory under each sizing model.
Why Sizing Matters More Than Picking Winners for Beginners

When a beginner places one large wager (25% to 100%), a standard 2-to-4 game losing streak causes irreversible risk of ruin. Even in games with negative mathematical expectation (the bookmaker's vigorish or casino house edge), micro-stakes (1% to 2%) minimize immediate capital exhaustion, dramatically smooth out variance, and allow room to learn without bankruptcy.

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