US Beef Packer Margin & Plant Rationalization Stress-Tester

Supply & Price Vectors

Preset Scenarios

US Cattle Inventory (M Head) 28.2 M

Live Steer Purchase ($/cwt) $194.00

Boxed Beef Cutout ($/cwt) $312.50

By-Product Drop Credit ($/cwt) $13.80

Harvest Processing Cost ($/head) $415.00

Average Fed Steer Weight (lbs) 1,410 lbs

Dressed Carcass Yield (%) 63.5%

Regional Livestock Volume Routing

Reroute Diverted Herd to Flagships 85%

Simulates capturing stranded head from closed facilities to boost operating plant run-rates.

Packer Margin / Head -$64.12 Squeezed vs Live Steer

Network Capacity Utilization 71.4% 17,500 head/day capacity

Annual Operational EBIT -$348.5 M Slaughter & Packaging Footprint

Per-Head Packer Margin Waterfall ($/Head Revenue vs Cost Components) Net: -$64.12/head

Tyson Beef Facility Footprint & Status Matrix Toggle plant status to simulate closure/sale margin recovery

Live Supply Chain Audit Stream ACTIVE SQUEEZE

[INIT] Cattle Inventory at 28.2M head. Margin stress threshold exceeded.
[ALERT] Live steer acquisition cost ($194.00/cwt) eclipsing wholesale beef cutout realization.
[FOOTPRINT] 3 plants designated for closure/divestment under Reuters report baseline.