Bilateral Trade & Summit Concession Modeler

Negotiation Parameters

Negotiation Archetypes

1. AI Compute & Model Weights Tech Pillar

Export limits on frontier accelerators, HBM memory, and dual-use AI safety guardrail verification.

US Stance

Counterpart Stance

2. Section 301 & Reciprocal Tariffs Trade Pillar

Broad baseline levies, steel/aluminum duties, and retaliatory agricultural tariffs.

US Stance

Counterpart Stance

3. Critical Minerals & Rare Earths Supply Chain

Gallium, germanium, antimony, graphite export quotas and refinery access.

US Stance

Counterpart Stance

4. Currency Policy & Capital Access Macro Finance

Foreign reserve allocations, bilateral financial clearing, and outbound investment reviews.

US Stance

Counterpart Stance

Simulation ready. Initial state calibrated.

Summit Accord Odds

54%

Moderate Viability

Bilateral Friction

58 / 100

Elevated Tension

Annual Friction Cost

-$64.2B

Bilateral Tariff Drag

Inflation Impulse

+18 bps

Headline CPI impact

Multi-Sector Output Sensitivity (% Delta)

Net Outlook

Friction Factor

Sector Impact Matrix

Industry Domain	Key Transmission Channel	Estimated Revenue Delta	Supply Chain Risk	Policy Vulnerability

Executive Summit Brief: Under the current parameters, ministerial talks indicate a balanced, conditional engagement. AI safety talks offer diplomatic common ground, but critical mineral supply caps and selective semiconductor controls remain key friction friction points prior to the heads-of-state summit.

How Bilateral Economic Summits Are Structured

Prior to high-stakes presidential meetings, ministerial sherpas—traditionally led by the U.S. Treasury Secretary and the Chinese Vice Premier overseeing economic policy—convene in working sessions to hammer out pre-summit deliverable packages:

AI Safety & Compute Sanctions: Balancing frontier algorithmic safety consensus against restrictions on high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and extreme ultraviolet lithography access.
Tariff Asymmetry: Managing Section 301 duties, potential tariff escalations, and retaliatory targeting of agricultural commodities (e.g., soybeans and pork).
Critical Upstream Minerals: Securing reliable access to refined battery metals, gallium, and permanent magnets vital for defense and industrial manufacturing.

Methodology & Transmission Modeling

This simulator models macro friction through weighted elasticity coefficients calibrated against historical trade policy transitions:

Accord Viability Index: Calculated from stance convergence across the four core negotiating pillars (0 = complete breakdown, 100 = comprehensive treaty).
Sector Exposure Weights: Tech and semiconductors bear the largest elasticity to export curbs; agriculture absorbs tariff retaliation; industrial manufacturing reacts to mineral quotas.
Inflation Impulse: Estimates direct price pass-through based on tariff escalation and intermediate goods supply friction.

What role do Treasury Secretary Bessent and Vice Premier He Lifeng hold?

The U.S. Treasury Secretary oversees economic sanctions, foreign investment reviews (CFIUS), financial regulation, and international economic dialogue. The Chinese Vice Premier in charge of the economy heads the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission office, directing Beijing's industrial strategy, international trade talks, and foreign direct investment policies.

How can users export and utilize this simulation?

Click "Export Dossier" to generate both a complete structured JSON dataset containing all lever selections and sector impact computations, and an instant briefing report for strategic reviews, investment committees, or policy research.