Billboard 200 Debut Projection
Official Week 1 Model
Rank
#29
Day and Night — Carly Rae Jepsen
Debuts inside the Billboard 200 Top 30 powered primarily by pure physical vinyl & CD collector sales.
22,000
Equivalent Album Units
Equivalent Album Units Composition
75% Pure Sales / 25% Streaming & TEA
Pure Sales
16,500
75.0%
SEA Paid
5,000
22.7%
SEA Free
500
2.3%
TEA
300
1.4%
Billboard 200 Weekly Cutoff Curve & Placement
Units needed for Top 10: ~58,000
4-Week Chart Trajectory & Drop-Off Forecast
Models front-loaded physical decay vs streaming retention
| Week | Pure Sales | SEA Units | Total EAU | Projected Rank | Retention % |
|---|
How Billboard 200 Equivalent Album Units (EAU) Work
Since 2014 and the revised 2018 Luminate rules, the Billboard 200 ranks the most popular albums in the United States using multi-metric consumption:
Total EAU = Pure Album Sales + SEA Units + TEA Units
Pure Album Sales: 1 physical vinyl, CD, cassette, or complete digital album purchase = 1.0 unit. Artists with strong vinyl collector bases (like Carly Rae Jepsen, Taylor Swift, or rock acts) often achieve top-tier debuts primarily via physical preorder shipping during release week.
Streaming & Track Conversion Weights
Streaming units distinguish between paying subscribers and ad-tier listeners to reflect economic value:
1,250 Subscription Audio Streams = 1 SEA Unit
3,750 Ad-Supported Audio Streams = 1 SEA Unit
10 Individual Track Digital Sales = 1 TEA Unit
A physical-heavy debut often experiences a 65%–75% second-week drop once preorders satisfy core fans, whereas viral streaming albums maintain higher week-over-week retention.