Blue Jays Double-Digit Run Surge & Win Probability Matrix

⚾ Field View & Live Diamond INNING 7 TOP

TOR 11 10+ DOUBLE DIGITS

3 OPP

● 1 OUT COUNT 2-1 WIN EXP: 99.4%

Rally Sequence Progress Play 6 of 6 (Milestone Hit)

Live Win Expectancy

99.4%

Historical 10+ Run Win %
98.7%

RE24 Run Expectancy

+1.54

Leverage Index (LI)

0.14

📈 Toronto In-Game Win Expectancy (D3.js)

Threshold: 50% Break-Even

#	Player	Pos	Runs	RBI	Key Play / Win Added

Expected runs remaining in the inning based on MLB empirical run matrices. Notice the surge impact when Josh Smith knocked in 2 runs with runners on 1st & 2nd with 1 out.

Empty, 0 out
0.48 runs

Empty, 1 out
0.25 runs

Empty, 2 out
0.09 runs

1st, 0 out
0.86 runs

1st, 1 out
0.51 runs

1st & 2nd, 1 out
0.89 runs (Pre-Hit)

Bases Loaded, 1 out
1.52 runs

1st, 1 out (+2 R)
2.51 net runs

The 10-Run Impossibility Barrier

In modern MLB history (1901–present), teams that score 10 or more runs in a single game post an overwhelming 98.7% winning record (over 28,000 wins vs fewer than 380 losses). When Josh Smith cleared the bases to register Toronto's 10th and 11th runs, Toronto's expected win rate effectively sealed victory.

• Blue Jays Franchise 10+ Run Games: >99.1% Win Rate

• Average Runs Allowed By Winner: 4.1 runs

• Surge Culmination: 7th inning multi-run rallies yield higher win lock than early surges due to depleted opponent bullpens.

Load verified offensive rally states to inspect win probability fluctuations: