Blue Jays Double-Digit Run Surge & Win Probability Matrix

⚾ Field View & Live Diamond INNING 7 TOP

TOR 11 10+ DOUBLE DIGITS

3 OPP

● 1 OUT COUNT 2-1 WIN EXP: 99.4%

Rally Sequence Progress Play 6 of 6 (Milestone Hit)

Live Win Expectancy

99.4%

Historical 10+ Run Win %
98.7%

RE24 Run Expectancy

+1.54

Leverage Index (LI)

0.14

📈 Toronto In-Game Win Expectancy (D3.js)

Threshold: 50% Break-Even

#	Player	Pos	Runs	RBI	Key Play / Win Added

Expected runs remaining in the inning based on MLB empirical run matrices. Notice the surge impact when Josh Smith knocked in 2 runs with runners on 1st & 2nd with 1 out.

Empty, 0 out
0.48 runs

Empty, 1 out
0.25 runs

Empty, 2 out
0.09 runs

1st, 0 out
0.86 runs

1st, 1 out
0.51 runs

1st & 2nd, 1 out
0.89 runs (Pre-Hit)

Bases Loaded, 1 out
1.52 runs

1st, 1 out (+2 R)
2.51 net runs

The 10-Run Impossibility Barrier

In modern MLB history (1901–present), teams that score 10 or more runs in a single game post an overwhelming 98.7% winning record (over 28,000 wins vs fewer than 380 losses). When Josh Smith cleared the bases to register Toronto's 10th and 11th runs, Toronto's expected win rate effectively sealed victory.

• Blue Jays Franchise 10+ Run Games: >99.1% Win Rate

• Average Runs Allowed By Winner: 4.1 runs

• Surge Culmination: 7th inning multi-run rallies yield higher win lock than early surges due to depleted opponent bullpens.

Load verified offensive rally states to inspect win probability fluctuations:

Saved rally score and leverage arithmetic

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Read the explanation

Saved final score eleven to three gives eight-run margin. Bars share zero at fifty pixels per run. Team and player data are saved fixtures, not authenticated game records. At saved rally start seven to three, score difference plus one gives five. One point two divided by five is point two four. Bars compare numerator and output at one hundred pixels per modeled leverage unit; they are formula quantities, not a statistical uncertainty interval. At eleven to three denominator becomes nine, giving about point one three three three, displayed point one three. Bars compare earlier point two four and this result at six hundred pixels per modeled leverage unit. The formula is a source heuristic, not measured official leverage index. Complete raw game export and milestone reset preserved.