Blue Jays 12-of-17 Surge & Late Rally Analyzer

Active Streak Win %

.706

12 Wins, 5 Losses (17 Games)

Run Differential

+24

86 RS / 62 RA (5.06 RS/G)

Late Comebacks (7th+ Inning)

5 Games

41.7% of surge wins rallied late

Projected 162-Game Pace

114 Wins

+33 wins over .500 baseline

📈 Win Accumulation & Inning Momentum Trajectory

Rolling Window:

Cumulative Wins (Actual/Simulated)

.500 Baseline Pace

Late-Inning Comeback Win

Loss

🔍 Game Leverage & Box Details

Game #17

TOR vs NYY W, 6 - 5

Cluster	Inn 1-3	Inn 4-6	Inn 7-9+	Total
TOR	1	1	4	6
OPP	2	3	0	5

Late-Inning Win Probability Shift: +68.4% WPA

Trailing 5-2 heading into the 8th, Toronto erupted for 4 runs capped by a 2-run double to secure the signature late-rally victory.

⚙ Counterfactual Outcome Simulator

Toggle game result to test how late-inning bounce variance shifts the streak record and season projection:

Game #17 Outcome:

Flipping this late rally reduces streak to 11-6 (.647) and projected 162-game pace to 105 wins (-9).

Toronto Blue Jays 12-of-17 Surge & Late Rally Analyzer