TOR

Toronto Blue Jays 12-of-17 Surge & Late Rally Analyzer

⚾ Illustrative Baseball Dataset • Authored 12-5 Stretch (.706 Win %)
Active Streak Win %
.706
12 Wins, 5 Losses (17 Games)
Run Differential
+24
86 RS / 62 RA (5.06 RS/G)
Late Comebacks (7th+ Inning)
5 Games
Five authored late-rally flags in the baseline
Arithmetic 162-Game Pace
114 Wins
+33 wins over .500 baseline
📈 Win Accumulation & Inning Momentum Trajectory
First Games:
Cumulative Sample Wins
.500 Baseline Pace
Late-Inning Comeback Win
Loss
🔍 Game Leverage & Box Details
Game #17
TOR vs NYY W, 6 - 5
Cluster Inn 1-3 Inn 4-6 Inn 7-9+ Total
TOR 1 1 4 6
OPP 2 3 0 5
Stored Illustrative WPA: +68.4% WPA

Trailing 5-2 heading into the 8th, Toronto erupted for 4 runs capped by a 2-run double to secure the signature late-rally victory.

⚙ Counterfactual Outcome Simulator

Toggle game result to test how late-inning bounce variance shifts the streak record and season projection:

Game #17 Outcome:
Flipping this late rally reduces streak to 11-6 (.647) and projected 162-game pace to 105 wins (-9).
State exported successfully

What changes when you flip a result?

This workbench separates a seventeen-game sample from an arithmetic what-if. It has no dated MLB feed, calibrated momentum model or verified game-level probabilities.

Follow a worked example and the model limits

The initial twelve wins give 12/17 = 0.705882, displayed .706. Multiplying by 162 and rounding gives 114 wins. Flip the selected seventeenth win and the sample becomes 11–6: .647 and 105 wins. Flip all five late-rally flags and it becomes 7–10: .412 and 67 wins. Neither change alters the stored 82–65 score totals or +17 run differential. Flipping all rallies is idempotent: it sets those flags to losses rather than toggling them back on a second click.

The “First Games” buttons draw the first five, ten or seventeen sample games, not a trailing rolling window. The header always uses all seventeen. Five-game and ten-game initial cumulative wins are four and seven. Selecting a point changes the inspector, not which games feed the header.

Stored WPA percentages are illustrative text; they are not recomputed from score, inning, runners or outs. The decorative meter takes their absolute magnitude, multiplies by 1.2 and clamps to 15–100%, so negative and positive values can produce the same width. The original five-rally mean claim also disagreed with the stored sample: those values average 63.04%, not 55%.

MLB’s run-differential glossary explains the scored-minus-allowed definition. MLB’s WPA glossary explains event-based changes in win expectancy. These sources supply statistical context, not validation of this invented sample.

Reset restores every sample game, the seventeenth selection and the seventeen-game chart. JSON exports all games and full-sample metrics, not the chart-window or selected-game setting. PNG is a 1200×630 summary image. There is no import, browser persistence or automatic refresh. No causal conclusion about late-inning skill, future wins or betting value follows from this short authored sequence.

Super generates helpful tools and automates fact-checking across the internet proactively. If you enjoyed this tool, build your own with Super and share it with a friend.