Game 1 Projected Win Probability
Blue Jays +4.2%
Key Analytical Factor
Bullpen ERA differential (+0.45 favor TOR in late innings)
Run Diff Surge (Last 30)
+1.42 R/G vs +1.15 R/G
Last 10 Form
TOR 7-3 | NYY 6-4
Series Outcome Simulator
AL East Standings Shift
Series Win (2-1): Blue Jays gain +1.0 game in AL East divisional race; Playoff odds shift +2.8%.
Rolling 30-Game Run Differential Momentum Timeline
● Toronto Blue Jays
● NY Yankees
Dynamic Matchup Levers & High-Leverage Adjustments
TOR Bullpen ERA (Last 30)
3.15
NYY Bullpen ERA (Last 30)
3.60
TOR Team OPS (Last 30)
.785
NYY Team OPS (Last 30)
.772
Toronto's +1.42 run-diff surge over the last 30 games gives them favorable late-inning win probability in tight AL East rivalry contests.
Generated based on Sportsnet AL East turnaround analytics · Home field advantage modeled (+3.5%)