All analytic values are authored examples. This is not a Statcast replay, real stadium model or WPA calculation. Official history and definitions appear below.
| Event / Batter | Exit Velo | Launch Ang | Distance | Leverage (LI) | WPA Shift | Result |
|---|
Can a trajectory sketch establish a historical hit’s distance or win probability?
This is an authored ball-flight experiment, not a Statcast data feed or recorded replay. Player-inspired presets and ledger values are stored examples. The flight, toy 30-bin proxy and game index are independently generated approximations; they do not verify the listed exit velocities, distances, spin, wind, leverage or WPA.
The engine uses fixed air density, drag and spin-dependent lift with 0.01-second steps and a 12-second cap. Its angle-dependent wall is a toy: 328 feet at center and 400 at ±45°, with a constant 10-foot height. It is not Rogers Centre geometry. Diagrams auto-scale to show the synthetic path and endpoint; spray is applied schematically rather than measured in 3D. Fielders, game score, inning, outs and runners are absent.
The default slider inputs are 114.2 mph, 28°, −16° spray, no wind and 2250 RPM. The preserved engine gives 516 feet, 106 feet apex and 5.75 seconds. Its wall at that spray is about 339 feet; the 177-foot margin is horizontal landing distance beyond the wall, not height clearance. The static ledger’s 428-foot entry remains an invented fixture and does not match this flight. The displayed game index caps at 99%; it is not an observed 99% win probability.
MLB dates Guerrero’s Blue Jays postseason grand slam to October 5, 2025. MLB: Guerrero highlight
Exit velocity describes ball speed off the bat; launch angle describes its initial vertical direction. MLB: exit velocity MLB: launch angle
Statcast became league-wide in 2015; Carter-era inputs here are not observed Statcast readings. MLB: Statcast
A valid historical comparison needs a specific game and play identifier, a documented data source and units. This page supplies none for its analytic ledger. Names evoke baseball moments; fixture numbers are not verified measurements.
WPA measures the change in win probability across an event. MLB: WPA
The page instead uses 46% + 48% × modeled distance / 428 for a model home run, capped at 99%, and a fixed 42% otherwise. It has no game-state input. A longer hit therefore moves an authored index, not a calibrated win-probability calculation. The ledger’s signed WPA strings and leverage values are static and never update with sliders.
Compare wind or spin while retaining the other inputs, then compare the effect on distance, height and hang time. The 30-bin value uses distance thresholds after the toy-wall check, without any real park dimensions. It is not an MLB expected-home-run count.
Preset buttons load five fixture inputs. Selecting a ledger row loads its velocity, angle and spray but sets wind to 0 and spin to 2200 RPM; it does not load the corresponding button’s wind/spin. Replay animates the current synthetic path over 1.4 seconds, not the model’s flight time. JSON preserves those inputs and toy telemetry for comparison, not publication as a Statcast log.
Event date.
Speed off the bat.
Initial vertical direction.
Event-based probability change.
League-wide tracking timeline.