Model Assumptions
Real-Time Recalculation
4.5 WAR
Expected multi-year annual on-field production level.
5.0%
League-wide payroll growth rate & $/WAR market expansion.
$32.0M
Competitive bidding baseline on an open multi-year commitment.
3 Years
Years left under current baseline Mets pact ($75M remaining).
Mets Luxury Tax (CBT) Impact
Compliant ($45.0M room)
Payroll: $196.0M
Threshold: $241.0M
Valuation Delta
+28.5%
Market AAV vs. Current Guarantee ($25.0M)
Projected Lifetime Gain
$21,500,000
Incremental total cash via open market pact
Opt-Out Status
Opt-Out Favored
Probability of exceeding $75M baseline: >84%
Downside Risk Index
Moderate (Injury / Age Factor)
Volatility in free agent multi-year guarantees
Cumulative Earnings Trajectory (D3.js Visualization)
Free Agency / Opt-Out Trajectory
Current Mets Contract Track ($25M AAV)
| Year | Status | Mets Contract ($) | Market Value ($) | Net Surplus / Deficit |
|---|