Separate contract facts from the scenario arithmetic
What changes when a fixed contract value is spread across a different horizon?
The workbench compares an evenly allocated fixed total with an assumed annual market value that compounds each year. It illustrates sensitivity, not a player decision, negotiated offer or payroll forecast.
No injury probabilities, market bidding, salary schedule, taxes, discounting or actual Mets payroll are modeled. WAR affects only a rule-based risk label; it does not determine market salary. Selecting one to five years redistributes the same full contract total, rather than calculating an actual remaining player-option balance.
Try a worked example
At the default three-year horizon, $126 million divided by three is $42 million annually. The assumed $32 million market path pays $32m, $33.6m and $35.28m at 5% compounding: $100.88m total, a $25.12m shortfall. The first-year AAV difference is −23.8%, distinct from the cumulative difference. Changing WAR alone leaves these dollar calculations unchanged.
MLB lists the 2026 CBT threshold as $244 million. The tool’s $45 million starting room remains hypothetical. MLB CBT glossary
Read the rules and chart together
Market annual pay equals the selected AAV multiplied by (1 + inflation) to the year index; the first year uses index zero. The chart accumulates those amounts. The baseline splits its fixed total evenly, so changing the horizon changes its annual allocation. These are authored cash paths, not a reported payment schedule.
The action label uses first-year AAV difference: below 5% favors keeping the baseline, 5% through below 35% favors the market, and 35% or more selects the aggressive label. It does not use cumulative gain or estimate decision probability. The toy payroll gauge holds payroll fixed for either market branch and applies the AAV difference only for the keep branch; it does not implement CBT assessment.
Compare the annual ledger and cumulative chart, then export the assumptions. Reset restores the authored inputs. Do not interpret risk categories, nominal totals or hypothetical threshold room as a recommendation or a team compliance finding.