Binary Market Payoff & Implied Probability Simulator

Position & Market Side

Contract Pricing

YES Share Price ($) $0.580

NO Share Price ($) $0.420

Polling & Target Modeling

Baseline Poll Avg (%) 48.5%

Poll Std Dev (Margin %) 1.2%

Target Threshold (%) 49.0%

Order Book & Sizing

Order Capital ($ USD)

Polling Probability Density PDF & Binary Payoff Curve

Poll Normal PDF

Win Zone (≥ Target)

Binary Net Payoff

Target Threshold

Contract Sensitivity & Order Book Depth Impact Matrix

Polling Outcome	Outcome Prob	Payoff / Share	Order Impact Price	Est. Slippage	Effective Net EV

Analysis Active: Polling 48.5% | YES Price $0.580 | Arbitrage Delta -24.3%

Probability and share payoff in the saved binary model

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Read the explanation

The saved binary payoff model assumes a normally distributed quantity with mean forty-eight point five and standard deviation one point two. The event is at least forty-nine. That cutoff is about point four one six seven standard deviations above the mean, so its upper-tail probability is about thirty-three point eight five percent. The source approximates the normal cumulative function; the bar lengths show this modeled probability and its complement. These are saved hypothetical parameters, not live poll data or measured event odds. A YES share costs point five eight in the saved default and pays one if the event occurs. Expected net payoff under that assumed probability is probability minus price, about minus point two four one five per share. Changing to NO swaps both probability and cost: its probability is the complement and its price point four two. The bars separate cost from expected gross payout. A difference between model and price is an assumption-dependent expected payoff, not a risk-free arbitrage proof. The source adds a simulated price-impact term using a fixed twenty-five-thousand-dollar depth pool. For an order of one thousand and default price point five eight, impact is one thousand divided by fifty-one thousand times point four two, about point zero zero eight two four. Its execution price is therefore about point five eight eight two four. The effect reduces modeled execution payoff by exactly that extra cost. The quantity is a toy liquidity rule, not an observed order book, and the source does not guarantee its displayed position-sizing result.