Bostrom Simulation Trilemma

2003 Argument Engine

⚙ Trilemma Variables

0.20

Fraction of human-stage species surviving to posthuman capacity.

0.50

Fraction of posthumans running ancestor simulations.

10,000

Avg number of ancestor simulations created by each sim-running civ.

3 Tiers

How deep ancestor sims run child sub-simulations.

⚡ Compute Constraints

10^17

FLOPS required to simulate 1 human mind (Bostrom baseline ~10^14–10^17).

10^42

Total posthuman compute capacity (e.g., Dyson sphere planet-computer).

Only render macro-observations until micro-physics are measured (saves 90%+ compute).

Dominant Trilemma Outcome

Option 3: We are almost certainly living in a computer simulation

Sim Observer Fraction (f_s) 99.99%
Active Tree Nodes 10,001
Compute Efficiency 85.4%
Simulated Minds 1.0e+11
Ancestor Sub-Simulation Hierarchy Hover/Click nodes to inspect rendering fidelity

▲ Probability Landscape

🧮 Derivation & Proof

Bostrom's Core Trilemma Equation:

f_s = \frac{f_p \cdot f_r \cdot N}{(1 - f_p) + f_p \cdot f_r \cdot N}

Where $f_s$ represents the fraction of human-equivalent observers existing inside virtual realities rather than fundamental base reality.

💾 Export & Reporting

Saved simulation fraction assumptions

Read the explanation

Saved posthuman fraction point two times simulation-running fraction point five times ten thousand simulations gives one thousand. Unsurviving-real term one minus point two equals point eight. Bars compare numerator multiplier and real term at point five pixels per multiplier. These unvalidated assumptions do not establish actual simulation probability. One thousand divided by one thousand point eight gives about point nine nine nine two. Complement is about point zero zero zero eight. Bars share zero at six hundred pixels per fraction unit and compare modeled simulated and real fractions. Denominator structure follows source executable arithmetic; philosophical premises remain unproved. With the same two fractions but ten assumed simulations, multiplier becomes one. One divided by one point eight gives five ninths, about point five five five six, complement four ninths. Bars share zero at six hundred pixels per fraction unit. This sensitivity demonstrates assumption dependence, not empirical evidence; complete native parameters/results/reset preserved.

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