Bostrom Simulation Trilemma

2003 Argument Engine

Trilemma Variables

0.20

Fraction of human-stage species surviving to posthuman capacity.

0.50

Fraction of posthumans running ancestor simulations.

10,000

Avg number of ancestor simulations created by each sim-running civ.

3 Tiers

How deep ancestor sims run child sub-simulations.

Compute Constraints

10^17

FLOPS required to simulate 1 human mind (Bostrom baseline ~10^14–10^17).

10^42

Total posthuman compute capacity (e.g., Dyson sphere planet-computer).

Only render macro-observations until micro-physics are measured (saves 90%+ compute).

Dominant Trilemma Outcome

Option 3: We are almost certainly living in a computer simulation

Sim Observer Fraction (f_s) 99.99%
Active Tree Nodes 10,001
Compute Efficiency 85.4%
Simulated Minds 1.0e+11
Ancestor Sub-Simulation Hierarchy Hover/Click nodes to inspect rendering fidelity

Probability Landscape

🧮 Derivation & Proof

Bostrom's Core Trilemma Equation:

f_s = \frac{f_p \cdot f_r \cdot N}{(1 - f_p) + f_p \cdot f_r \cdot N}

Where $f_s$ represents the fraction of human-equivalent observers existing inside virtual realities rather than fundamental base reality.

💾 Export & Reporting

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