Chamber of Deputies (Câmara dos Deputados)
298 / 513 in Coalition (58.1%)
Governing Base (142)
Centrão Aligned
Centrão Uncommitted
Opposition (156)
Constitutional Reform Roll Call (PEC):
Probability: 88%
Secured Votes: 312
Target: 308 (3/5ths Majority)
[00:00:00] Simulation initialized: 2026 Polarized Mandate.
[00:00:01] Accommodating Bargain active: R$34.2B emendas ceded, 11 ministries assigned.
Executive Bargaining Console
37 Total Ministries
11 Ministries
Distribute powerful ministries (Cities, Ports, Mining) to secure party loyalty.
R$ 34.2 Bn
Discretionary and individual budget transfers traded for congressional compliance.
Balanced (50%)
Higher discipline lowers Selic rate pressure but aggravates congressional demand for pork.
Macroeconomic Trajectory Feedback
Central Bank & Treasury Projections
Selic Rate
10.50%
-75 bps shift
Debt / GDP
79.8%
Stabilized
GDP Growth
2.0%
+0.6% delta
Centrão Loyalty
72.6%
156 / 215 seats