Quarter 1 Simulation Parameters
-4.5
-14 Deficit
Even (0)
+14 Lead
31.2%
0%
NFL Avg (~42%)
100%
1.4
0 Clean
1.0
3.0 Crisis
0.68
Weak (0.20)
Average (0.50)
Elite (0.90)
Quick Presets
Context & Provenance: Grounded in Barstool Sports' callout ("The Broncos need to figure it out EARLY"). Models opening 15-minute game trajectory against NFL win-probability shifts.
Game Impact & Early Vulnerability Model
Win Probability Impact
-24.5%
Baseline vs. current Q1 trajectory
Vulnerability Index
High Early Risk
Combined turnover & drive deficit
Tactical Recommendation
Script high-percentage early plays and minimize opening quarter turnovers
Q1 Deficit vs. Final Win Rate Matrix
Scenario Performance Export