Baseline

1. Standard List Price

No concessions used. Full list price at prevailing market mortgage rate.

Monthly Principal & Interest
$3,074
Total PITI: $4,002/mo
Purchase Price$520,000
Loan Amount$468,000
Interest Rate6.88%
Est. Closing Costs Paid by Buyer$14,500
Qualifying Income (36% DTI)$133,400/yr
Cash Discount

2. Direct Price Cut

Entire incentive allocated directly to reduce the base purchase contract price.

Monthly Principal & Interest
$2,897
Total PITI: $3,788/mo (-$214)
Purchase Price$490,000
Loan Amount$441,000
Interest Rate6.88%
Down Payment Saved+$3,000
Qualifying Income (36% DTI)$126,200/yr
Max Leverage

3. Forward Rate Buydown

Builder uses credit pool to buy down rate with affiliate mortgage lender.

Monthly Principal & Interest
$2,509
Total PITI: $3,437/mo (-$565/mo)
Purchase Price (Keeps comps high)$520,000
Loan Amount$468,000
Contract Rate4.99%
5-Year Cumulative Savings+$33,900
Qualifying Income (36% DTI)$114,500/yr

5-Year Cumulative Cash Outlay Comparison

No Discount
Price Cut
Rate Buydown
Year 0 (Closing) Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 (Break-Even)

Purchasing Power Disparity

To produce the same $565/mo savings as a 4.99% buydown, a builder would have to slash price by $86,000 (16.5%), destroying neighborhood appraisals.

Equivalent Price Reduction Needed
-$86,000
vs. Only spending $30,000 on rate buydown points.
Key Insight: Homebuilders maintain headline comps to satisfy prior buyers and appraisers, channeling capital into forward mortgage commitments instead of sticker price reductions.

Regional Homebuilder Concession Tracker

Current Q3 Active Metros

Where public builders (D.R. Horton, Lennar, Pulte) are deploying the deepest incentives and who is actively buying.

Metro Area Avg Incentive % Top Concession Structure Spec Inventory Pressure Primary Active Buyer Cohort Action

Who Is Still Buying? Buyer Cohort Fit

Analysis of demographic absorption under builder rate programs.

🎫
First-Time Millennial
Constrained by strict debt-to-income (DTI) caps. Rate buydown reduces required qualifying income by over $18,900/yr, unlocking approval when resale homes reject them.
Favors: 4.99% Permanent Buydown
🏡
Move-Up Family
Suffering from the "rate lock-in" effect (leaving a 3.25% mortgage). A builder's 4.99% program bridges the psychological gap between historic lows and prevailing 7% market rates.
Favors: Hybrid Rate + Design Credit
💼
All-Cash / Investor
Unmoved by mortgage rate points since they don't finance. They aggressively negotiate direct price reductions or HOA/warranty pre-paids to bolster immediate net cap rates.
Favors: Direct Price Slash
Analysis up to date for current parameters. Ready to export.
Methodology & Mortgage Calculation Assumptions

Formulas Used: Monthly Principal & Interest (P&I) is computed using standard monthly amortization: M = P [ r(1 + r)^n ] / [ (1 + r)^n - 1 ] where r is monthly interest rate and n = 360 months. Property tax is calculated based on county effective tax rate on purchase price. Qualifying income assumes a standard 36% front-end debt-to-income benchmark.

Builder Economics Note: National homebuilders use forward-commit bulk commitments with institutional lenders to lock blocks of funds at discounted rates, allowing them to provide below-market mortgages at a lower cash cost than an equivalent price reduction.

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