By-Election Campaign Simulator & Electoral Dynamics Map

Seat: Holborn & St Pancras
Green Party leader Zack Polanski enters the parliamentary by-election contest following Keir Starmer's seat vacation.

Strategic Scenarios

Dynamic Swing Controls

Green Party Swing Shift +8.5%

Voter reallocation directly to Zack Polanski campaign

Estimated Turnout 52.4%

Historical by-election turnout adjustment factor

Conservative Retention 19.8%

Base Tory vote share in northern wards

Lib Dem Tactical Transfer 10.4%

Bloomsbury / student demographic tactical shift

*Calculations model uniform swing against 2024 general election baseline boundaries in the London Borough of Camden.

Projected Outcome

Labour (Held with Reduced Majority)

Single Member Plurality FPTP

Projected Labour Share

Incumbent party base retention

Projected Green Share

+8.5% Green

Projected Majority Margin

3,250

Votes lead between top two candidates

Labour Party 41.5%

Green Party (Zack Polanski) 24.1%

Conservative Party 19.8%

Liberal Democrats 10.4%

Constituency Ward Modeling
Hover or click a ward to inspect projected local swing intensity and demographic lean.

Projected Ward Plurality

Labour Advantage (>10%)

Labour Marginal (<10%)

Green Marginal (<10%)

Green Advantage (>10%)

Simulation Engine: Ready